{"id":16924,"date":"2026-05-26T10:09:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T02:09:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/learncmg.cn\/?p=16924"},"modified":"2026-05-26T10:10:36","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T02:10:36","slug":"%e5%ba%94%e7%94%a8%e6%a1%88%e4%be%8b%ef%bc%88117%ef%bc%89%ef%bc%9abrady-hot-springs%e5%9c%b0%e7%83%ad%e7%94%b0%e5%9c%b0%e4%b8%8b%e8%a1%a8%e5%be%81%e4%b8%8e%e6%9c%ba%e5%99%a8%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%a0%e9%a2%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/learncmg.cn\/?p=16924","title":{"rendered":"\u5e94\u7528\u6848\u4f8b\uff08117\uff09\uff1aBrady Hot Springs\u5730\u70ed\u7530\u5730\u4e0b\u8868\u5f81\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9884\u6d4b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\ud83d\udcdd \u6458\u8981<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u5730\u4e0b\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u3001\u6cb9\u85cf\u5efa\u6a21\u548c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6280\u672f\u5df2\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5185\u534e\u8fbe\u5dde\u7684Brady Hot Springs\u5730\u70ed\u7530\uff0c\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8868\u5f81\u5730\u4e0b\u7279\u5f81\u5e76\u8f85\u52a9\u4f18\u5316\u6cb9\u85cf\u7ba1\u7406\u3002\u4f7f\u7528TETRAD-G\u548cCMG STARS\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6570\u767e\u6b21\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u62df\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a2\u7d22\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6ce8\u5165\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u6d41\u91cf\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u53d1\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002\u8be5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5305\u62ec\u6a21\u62df\u81ea1979\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6ce8\u5165\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9884\u6d4b\u52302040\u5e74\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u591a\u5c42\u611f\u77e5\u5668\uff08MLP\uff09\u3001\u957f\u77ed\u671f\u8bb0\u5fc6\uff08LSTM\uff09\u548c\u5377\u79ef\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\uff08CNN\uff09\u67b6\u6784\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528TensorFlow\u521b\u5efa\u548c\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e86\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f51\u7edc\u4ee5\u9009\u5b9a\u7684\u6d41\u91cf\u3001\u6ce8\u5165\u6e29\u5ea6\u548c\u73b0\u573a\u5386\u53f2\u64cd\u4f5c\u6570\u636e\u4e3a\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6e29\u5ea6\u3002\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u9996\u5148\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5316\u7684\u5355\u88c2\u7f1d\u5bf9\u4e95\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6210\u529f\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u5e94\u7528\u4e8eBHS\u6cb9\u85cf\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u5305\u542b37\u4e2a\u6a21\u62df\u573a\u666f\u7684\u521d\u59cbBHS\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\u548c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u540e\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u516d\u53e3\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u7edd\u5bf9\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8bef\u5dee\u4f4e\u4e8e8%\u3002\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u8865\u5145\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf913\u4e2aBHS\u5730\u8d28\u53c2\u6570\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u4e3b\u6210\u5206\u5206\u6790\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5782\u76f4\u88c2\u7f1d\u6e17\u900f\u7387\u4e0e\u65ad\u5c42\u5bc6\u5ea6\u548c\u65ad\u5c42\u4ea4\u6c47\u5bc6\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6700\u5f3a\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u65ad\u5c42\u4ea4\u6c47\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6e17\u900f\u7387\u4ee3\u7406\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u65b0\u7684BHS\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd8\u5236\u5b9a\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u4e09\u53e3\u95f2\u7f6e\u6ce8\u5165\u4e95\u8fdb\u884c\u6e29\u5ea6\u6d4b\u4e95\uff0c\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u62df\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e95\u7684\u4e95\u5e95\u6e29\u5ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\u3002\u91c7\u96c6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6821\u51c6\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\u6d3b\u52a8\u8ba1\u5212\u4e8e2021\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udda5\ufe0f CMG\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5e94\u7528\u60c5\u51b5\u603b\u7ed3<\/span><\/h2>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u9879\u76ee<\/span><\/th>\n\u5185\u5bb9<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
\u6240\u7528\u8f6f\u4ef6<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u2022\u00a0<\/span>CMG STARS<\/span><\/strong>\uff082019\u7248\u672c\uff09\uff1a\u5148\u8fdb\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e0e\u70ed\u91c7\u6a21\u62df\u5668\uff0c\u7528\u4e8eBrady Hot Springs\u5730\u70ed\u7530\u7684\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u62df<\/span>
\u2022\u00a0<\/span>TETRAD-G<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u5730\u70ed\u6a21\u62df\u5668\uff08\u7531Shook and Faulder, 1991\u5f00\u53d1\uff09\uff0c\u7528\u4e8eBHS\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u62df\u548cML\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210<\/span>
\u2022\u00a0<\/span>TensorFlow<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7528\u4e8eMLP\u3001LSTM\u548cCNN\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u548c\u9884\u6d4b<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u6a21\u578b\u7c7b\u578b<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u2022 \u4e09\u7ef4\u6570\u503c\u70ed-\u6c34\u529b\uff08TH\uff09\u53cc\u91cd\u4ecb\u8d28\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u578b<\/span>
\u2022 \u7ea620,000\u4e2a\u7f51\u683c\u5355\u5143<\/span>
\u2022 \u5305\u542b\u81ea1979\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6ce8\u5165\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u6570\u636e\u3001\u7ea640\u53e3\u6ce8\u5165\u4e95\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5730\u8868\u55b7\u6c14\u5b54\u548c\u6cb9\u85cf\u5e95\u90e8\u6d41\u4f53\u6e90\uff09<\/span>
\u2022 \u8fb9\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a\u9876\u90e8\u548c\u5e95\u90e8\u6052\u6e29\uff0c\u56db\u4fa7\u6052\u538b\u542b\u6c34\u5c42<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u6a21\u62df\u5bf9\u8c61<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u5185\u534e\u8fbe\u5ddeBrady Hot Springs\u5730\u70ed\u7530\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u5c3a\u5bf8\u7ea618 km \u00d7 10 km \u00d7 3.5 km<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e94\u7528\u65b9\u5f0f<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u2022\u00a0<\/span>\u5386\u53f2\u6a21\u62df<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u6a21\u62df\u81ea1979\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6ce8\u5165\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u6570\u636e<\/span>
\u2022\u00a0<\/span>\u672a\u6765\u9884\u6d4b<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u52302040\u5e74\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6cb9\u85cf\u64cd\u4f5c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u672a\u6765\u751f\u4ea7\u6e29\u5ea6\u548c\u538b\u529b<\/span>
\u2022\u00a0<\/span>ML\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u6570\u767e\u6b21\u6a21\u62df\u751f\u6210\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/span>
\u2022\u00a0<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u8f6c\u6362<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u5c06TETRAD-G\u6a21\u578b\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3aCMG STARS\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u5176\u5185\u7f6e\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u529f\u80fd<\/span>
\u2022\u00a0<\/span>\u6a21\u578b\u9a8c\u8bc1<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u5bf9\u6bd4TETRAD-G\u548cCMG STARS\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6ce8\u5165\/\u751f\u4ea7\u6d41\u91cf\u548c\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u6781\u4f73\u5339\u914d<\/span>
\u2022\u00a0<\/span>\u7b80\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u6d4b\u8bd5<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528CMG STARS\u6a21\u62df\u5355\u88c2\u7f1d\u5bf9\u4e95\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08Song et al., 2018\u6a21\u578b\uff09\uff0c\u7528\u4e8eML\u65b9\u6cd5\u6d4b\u8bd5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u6a21\u578b\u53c2\u6570<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u2022 \u521d\u59cb\u6e29\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03\uff08\u56fe1\uff09<\/span>
\u2022 \u7ea640\u53e3\u4e95\uff08\u6ce8\u5165\u4e95\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\u3001\u55b7\u6c14\u5b54\u3001\u6d41\u4f53\u6e90\uff09<\/span>
\u2022 \u4e3b\u8981\u6d41\u52a8\u8def\u5f84\u8fde\u63a5\u6ce8\u5165\u4e95\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95<\/span>
\u2022 \u53cc\u91cd\u4ecb\u8d28\uff08\u88c2\u7f1d-\u57fa\u8d28\uff09\u7cfb\u7edf<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u6a21\u578b\u9a8c\u8bc1<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u2022 TETRAD-G\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u73b0\u573a\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u6bd4\u826f\u597d\uff08\u516d\u53e3\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\u5e73\u5747\u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee4.4-16.4\u00b0C\uff09<\/span>
\u2022 TETRAD-G\u4e0eCMG STARS\u5728\u6ce8\u5165\/\u751f\u4ea7\u6d41\u91cf\u548c\u538b\u529b\u4e0a\u5339\u914d\u6781\u4f73<\/span>
\u2022 \u751f\u4ea7\u6e29\u5ea6\u5256\u9762\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4f46\u5e73\u5747\u504f\u5dee\u7ea6\u00b15\u00b0C\uff08\u8ba1\u5212\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7ec6\u5316\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ML\u9884\u6d4b\u8f93\u5165<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u2022 \u5386\u53f2\u751f\u4ea7\u6e29\u5ea6<\/span>
\u2022 \u6ce8\u5165\u6e29\u5ea6<\/span>
\u2022 \u6ce8\u5165\u8d28\u91cf\u6d41\u91cf<\/span>
\u2022 \u5bf9\u4e8eBHS\uff1a12\u4e2a\u9644\u52a0\u901a\u9053\uff084\u53e3\u6ce8\u5165\u4e95\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u538b\u529b\u3001\u8d28\u91cf\u6d41\u91cf\uff09<\/span>
\u2022 \u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u957f\u5ea6N=12\uff08\u53ef\u8c03\u53c2\u6570\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ML\u9884\u6d4b\u8f93\u51fa<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u516d\u53e3\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\u7684\u672a\u6765\u751f\u4ea7\u6e29\u5ea6\uff082020-2040\u5e74\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u2022 MLP\u3001LSTM\u548cCNN\u7f51\u7edc\u5747\u80fd\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u5355\u88c2\u7f1d\u5bf9\u4e95\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6e29\u5ea6\uff08MAPE 3.99%-7.34%\uff09<\/span>
\u2022 \u5728BHS\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f7f\u752837\u4e2a\u6a21\u62df\u573a\u666f\u8bad\u7ec3\u540e\uff0c\u516d\u53e3\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u9884\u6d4bMAPE < 8%\uff0cMLP\u7f51\u7edc\u5e73\u5747MAPE\u7ea61%\uff0cLSTM\u7ea62.5%<\/span>
\u2022 \u4e3b\u6210\u5206\u5206\u6790\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5782\u76f4\u88c2\u7f1d\u6e17\u900f\u7387\u4e0e\u65ad\u5c42\u5bc6\u5ea6\u548c\u65ad\u5c42\u4ea4\u6c47\u5bc6\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6700\u5f3a<\/span>
\u2022 \u57fa\u4e8e\u65ad\u5c42\u4ea4\u6c47\u5bc6\u5ea6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6e17\u900f\u7387\u4ee3\u7406\uff0c\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u65b0\u7684BHS\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u578b<\/span>
\u2022 CMG STARS\u548cTETRAD-G\u5747\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u652f\u6301\u5730\u70ed\u50a8\u5c42\u6a21\u62df\u548cML\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\u6587\u4e2d\u660e\u786e\u6307\u51fa\uff08Case117.pdf\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

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“Hundreds of reservoir simulations have been conducted in\u00a0<\/span>TETRAD-G and CMG STARS<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0to explore different injection and production fluid flow rates and allocations and to develop a training data set for ML.” \uff08\u6458\u8981\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u7b2c1\u9875\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

“BHS reservoir simulations were set up and run in TETRAD-G (Shook and Faulder, 1991) and\u00a0<\/span>CMG STARS<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0(Computer Modelling Group Ltd., 2019) to generate a training data set for the ML algorithms.” \uff08\u7b2c2\u8282\uff0c\u7b2c1\u9875\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

“The TETRAD-G model was converted to a\u00a0<\/span>CMG STARS<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0model to allow for use of its built-in ML capabilities. An excellent match in injection and production flow rates and pressures was obtained between the TETRAD-G and CMG STARS model.” \uff08\u7b2c2\u8282\uff0c\u7b2c2\u9875\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

\u81f4\u8c22\u90e8\u5206\uff08\u7b2c8\u9875\uff09\uff1a\u201c<\/span>We thank Computer Modelling Group for donating the software licenses necessary to enable these simulations.<\/span><\/strong>\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\ud83e\uddea \u6a21\u62df\u65b9\u6848\u4e0e\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/h2>\n

1. BHS\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u7acb\uff08\u7b2c2\u8282\uff0c\u56fe1\uff09<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u6a21\u578b\u7279\u5f81<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    \u4e09\u7ef4\u53cc\u91cd\u4ecb\u8d28\uff08\u88c2\u7f1d-\u57fa\u8d28\uff09\u70ed-\u6c34\u529b\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    \u7ea620,000\u4e2a\u7f51\u683c\u5355\u5143<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    \u6a21\u578b\u5c3a\u5bf8\uff1a~18 km \u00d7 10 km \u00d7 3.5 km<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    \u4e95\u4f4d\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u6d45\u90e8\u9ad8\u6e29\u5f02\u5e38\u533a<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \u6a21\u578b\u8f93\u5165<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n

      \u81ea1979\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6ce8\u5165\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u6570\u636e<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      \u7ea640\u53e3\u4e95\uff08\u6ce8\u5165\u4e95\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\u3001\u5730\u8868\u55b7\u6c14\u5b54\u3001\u5e95\u90e8\u6d41\u4f53\u6e90\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      \u8fde\u63a5\u6ce8\u5165\u4e95\u548c\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6d41\u52a8\u8def\u5f84<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      \u8fb9\u754c\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a\u9876\u90e8\u548c\u5e95\u90e8\u6052\u6e29\uff0c\u56db\u4fa7\u6052\u538b\u542b\u6c34\u5c42<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      \u6a21\u578b\u9a8c\u8bc1<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        TETRAD-G\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u73b0\u573a\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u5339\u914d\uff1a\u516d\u53e3\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\u5e73\u5747\u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee4.4-16.4\u00b0C<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        TETRAD-G\u4e0eCMG STARS\u5728\u6ce8\u5165\/\u751f\u4ea7\u6d41\u91cf\u548c\u538b\u529b\u4e0a\u5339\u914d\u6781\u4f73<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        \u751f\u4ea7\u6e29\u5ea6\u5256\u9762\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u504f\u5dee\u7ea6\u00b15\u00b0C<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        2. \u7b80\u5316\u5355\u88c2\u7f1d\u5bf9\u4e95\u7cfb\u7edf\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff08\u7b2c3\u8282\uff0c\u56fe2a, 3, 4\uff09<\/span><\/h3>\n

        \u6a21\u578b\u6765\u6e90<\/span><\/strong>\uff1aSong et al.\uff082018\uff09\u5355\u88c2\u7f1d\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u4e00\u6ce8\u4e00\u91c7<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u6a21\u62df\u5de5\u5177<\/span><\/strong>\uff1aCMG STARS\u3001TOUGH2-CSM\u3001\u89e3\u6790\u65b9\u7a0b<\/span><\/p>\n

        ML\u67b6\u6784\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong>\uff0820\u4e2a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u56fe4\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
        \u7f51\u7edc\u67b6\u6784<\/span><\/th>\n\u5e73\u5747MAPE<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
        MLP\uff08\u591a\u5c42\u611f\u77e5\u5668\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n3.99%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        CNN\uff08\u5377\u79ef\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n~6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        LSTM\uff08\u957f\u77ed\u671f\u8bb0\u5fc6\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n7.34%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

        LSTM\u9884\u6d4b\u793a\u4f8b<\/span><\/strong>\uff08\u56fe3\uff09\uff1aMAPE\u8303\u56f41.69%-20.73%\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u4ec5\u51e0\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9<\/span><\/p>\n

        \u5173\u952e\u53d1\u73b0<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u7ed3\u5408\u7269\u7406\u53c2\u6570\uff08\u6ce8\u5165\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u8d28\u91cf\u6d41\u91cf\uff09\u6bd4\u7eaf\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u66f4\u51c6\u786e<\/span><\/p>\n

        3. BHS\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u9884\u6d4b\uff08\u7b2c3\u8282\uff0c\u56fe2b, 5, 6\uff09<\/span><\/h3>\n

        \u8f93\u5165\u901a\u9053<\/span><\/strong>\uff08\u56fe2b\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

          \n
        • \n

          \u5386\u53f2\u751f\u4ea7\u6e29\u5ea6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          4\u53e3\u6ce8\u5165\u4e95\u7684\uff1a\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u538b\u529b\u3001\u8d28\u91cf\u6d41\u91cf\uff08\u517112\u4e2a\u9644\u52a0\u901a\u9053\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          \u6570\u636e\u96c6\u5212\u5206<\/span><\/strong>\uff0837\u4e2a\u521d\u59cb\u573a\u666f\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

            \n
          • \n

            \u8bad\u7ec3\uff1a65%\uff0824\u4e2a\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            \u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1a10%\uff083\u4e2a\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

          • \n

            \u6d4b\u8bd5\uff1a25%\uff0810\u4e2a\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            \u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong>\uff08\u56fe5\uff09\uff1a\u4e00\u53e3\u751f\u4ea7\u4e9510\u4e2a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u573a\u666f\u7684MAPE\uff1a0.17%-3.92%<\/span><\/p>\n

            \u516d\u53e3\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\u7efc\u5408\u7ed3\u679c<\/span><\/strong>\uff08\u56fe6\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

            \n\n\n\n\n\n\n
            \u7f51\u7edc\u67b6\u6784<\/span><\/th>\n\u5e73\u5747MAPE\uff08\u516d\u53e3\u4e95\uff09<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
            MLP<\/span><\/td>\n~1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            LSTM<\/span><\/td>\n~2.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

            4. \u4e3b\u6210\u5206\u5206\u6790\uff08PCA\uff09\u4e0e\u66f4\u65b0\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u7b2c4\u8282\uff0c\u56fe7-8\uff09<\/span><\/h3>\n

            \u5206\u6790\u768413\u4e2a\u5730\u8d28\u53d8\u91cf<\/span><\/strong>\uff08\u56fe7\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

              \n
            • \n

              \u65ad\u5c42\u5bc6\u5ea6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              \u65ad\u5c42\u4ea4\u6c47\u5bc6\u5ea6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              \u6a21\u62df\u5e94\u529b\u53d8\u5316\uff08Siler et al., 2018\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              \u6ed1\u52a8\u8d8b\u52bf<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              \u6269\u5f20\u8d8b\u52bf<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              \u65ad\u5c42\u66f2\u7387<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              \u8ddd\u65ad\u5c42\u8ddd\u79bb<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              \u8ddd\u63a5\u89e6\u9762\u8ddd\u79bb<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              \u5730\u5c42\u539a\u5ea6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              \u4e09\u7ef4\u6e29\u5ea6\uff08Siler et al., 2016\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

            • \n

              \u7b49<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              \u5173\u952e\u53d1\u73b0<\/span><\/strong>\uff08\u56fe7\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

                \n
              • \n

                5\u4e2a\u4e3b\u6210\u5206\u4ee3\u8868>80%\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53d8\u5f02\u6027<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

              • \n

                \u5782\u76f4\u88c2\u7f1d\u6e17\u900f\u7387\u4e0e<\/span>\u65ad\u5c42\u5bc6\u5ea6<\/span><\/strong>\u548c<\/span>\u65ad\u5c42\u4ea4\u6c47\u5bc6\u5ea6<\/span><\/strong>\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6700\u5f3a\uff08\u70ed\u56fe\u4e2d\u6696\u8272\u8868\u793a\u9ad8\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                \u65b0\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u578b<\/span><\/strong>\uff08\u56fe8\uff09\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

                  \n
                • \n

                  \u4ee5\u65ad\u5c42\u5bc6\u5ea6\u548c\u65ad\u5c42\u9759\u6001\u5e94\u529b\u72b6\u6001\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6e17\u900f\u7387\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u53c2\u6570<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  \u9ad8\u6e17\u900f\u7387\u533a\u57df\uff08\u7ea2\u8272\u533a\u5757\uff09\u53e0\u52a0\u9ad8\u65ad\u5c42\u4ea4\u6c47\u5bc6\u5ea6\u533a\u57df\uff08\u6696\u8272\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                • \n

                  \u7528\u4e8e\u63a2\u7d22\u73b0\u573a\u6f5c\u5728\u672a\u5145\u5206\u5f00\u53d1\u533a\u57df<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                  5. \u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\u8ba1\u5212\uff08\u7b2c5\u8282\uff0c\u56fe9\uff09<\/span><\/h3>\n

                  \u76ee\u6807\u4e95<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

                    \n
                  • \n

                    18A-1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                  • \n

                    MGI-1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                  • \n

                    MGI-2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                    \u9009\u62e9\u4f9d\u636e<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

                      \n
                    • \n

                      \u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e95\u662f\u5df2\u95f2\u7f6e\u6570\u5e74\u7684\u539f\u6ce8\u5165\u4e95<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                    • \n

                      \u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u793a\u4e95\u4f4d\u9644\u8fd1\u5177\u6709\u826f\u597d\u7684\u8fd1\u4e95\u6e17\u900f\u7387<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                    • \n

                      TETRAD-G\u548cCMG STARS\u6a21\u62df\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e95\u5e95\u6e29\u5ea6\u5df2\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u8db3\u591f\u9ad8\uff0c\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u8f6c\u4e3a\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                      \u6d3b\u52a8\u5185\u5bb9<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u6e29\u5ea6\u6d4b\u4e95\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u8ba4\uff08\u6216\u5426\u5b9a\uff09\u6e29\u5ea6\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6cb9\u85cf\u6a21\u578b\u6821\u51c6\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e95\u4e0b\u6570\u636e\u70b9<\/span><\/p>\n

                      \u8ba1\u5212\u65f6\u95f4<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a2021\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff08\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\u6d3b\u52a8\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

                      \u2705 \u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba<\/span><\/h2>\n
                        \n
                      1. \n

                        CMG STARS\u4e0eTETRAD-G\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u4e24\u79cd\u6a21\u62df\u5668\u5728\u6ce8\u5165\/\u751f\u4ea7\u6d41\u91cf\u548c\u538b\u529b\u4e0a\u83b7\u5f97\u6781\u4f73\u5339\u914d\uff0c\u5747\u53ef\u6709\u6548\u652f\u6301\u5730\u70ed\u50a8\u5c42\u6a21\u62df\u548cML\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u751f\u6210\u3002CMG STARS\u8f6c\u6362\u6a21\u578b\u5229\u7528\u4e86\u5176\u5185\u7f6e\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      2. \n

                        ML\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027<\/span><\/strong>\uff1aMLP\u3001LSTM\u548cCNN\u5747\u80fd\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u5355\u88c2\u7f1d\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u6e29\u5ea6\uff08MAPE 3.99%-7.34%\uff09\u3002\u5728BHS\u5e94\u7528\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f7f\u752837\u4e2a\u6a21\u62df\u573a\u666f\u8bad\u7ec3\u540e\uff0c\u516d\u53e3\u751f\u4ea7\u4e95\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u9884\u6d4bMAPE < 8%\uff0cMLP\u7f51\u7edc\u5e73\u5747MAPE\u7ea61%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      3. \n

                        \u8f93\u5165\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u7ed3\u5408\u7269\u7406\u53c2\u6570\uff08\u6ce8\u5165\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u8d28\u91cf\u6d41\u91cf\uff09\u6bd4\u7eaf\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d1\u73b0\u5bf9\u7c7b\u4f3cML\u5e94\u7528\u5177\u6709\u666e\u9002\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      4. \n

                        \u5730\u8d28-\u6e17\u900f\u7387\u76f8\u5173\u6027<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u4e3b\u6210\u5206\u5206\u6790\u63ed\u793a\uff0c\u5782\u76f4\u88c2\u7f1d\u6e17\u900f\u7387\u4e0e\u65ad\u5c42\u5bc6\u5ea6\u548c\u65ad\u5c42\u4ea4\u6c47\u5bc6\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u6700\u5f3a\uff0c\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u5730\u8d28\u6570\u636e\u9884\u6d4b\u6e17\u900f\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5b9a\u91cf\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      5. \n

                        \u6570\u636e\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u5730\u70ed\u7530\u7ba1\u7406<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5c06\u6570\u503c\u6a21\u62df\u4e0e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u7528\u4e8e\u5730\u70ed\u7530\u4f18\u5316\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u8def\u5f84\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u6a21\u62df\u5230\u672a\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4ece\u6a21\u578b\u6821\u51c6\u5230\u73b0\u573a\u6570\u636e\u91c7\u96c6\u8ba1\u5212\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

                      6. \n

                        CMG\u8f6f\u4ef6\u6350\u8d60<\/span><\/strong>\uff1aComputer Modelling Group\u4e3a\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u6350\u8d60\u4e86\u8f6f\u4ef6\u8bb8\u53ef\u8bc1\uff0c\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86CMG\u5bf9\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                        \ud83c\udfdb\ufe0f \u4f5c\u8005\u53ca\u5355\u4f4d\u4fe1\u606f<\/span><\/h2>\n
                        \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
                        \u4f5c\u8005<\/span><\/th>\n\u5355\u4f4d<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
                        Koenraad F. Beckers<\/span><\/td>\n\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff08NREL\uff09\uff1bHeateon<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                        Dmitry Duplyakin<\/span><\/td>\n\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff08NREL\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                        Michael J. Martin<\/span><\/td>\n\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff08NREL\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                        Henry E. Johnston<\/span><\/td>\n\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff08NREL\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
                        Drew L. Siler<\/span><\/td>\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u8d28\u8c03\u67e5\u5c40\uff08USGS\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

                        \u4f1a\u8bae<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a\u7b2c46\u5c4a\u5730\u70ed\u50a8\u5c42\u5de5\u7a0b\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\uff082021\u5e742\u670816-18\u65e5\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n

                        \u8d44\u52a9<\/span><\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n